Big headline.... little facts------El Niño intensifying, could rival strongest in recorded history

El Niño intensifying, could rival strongest in recorded history - The Washington Post:
"...“[El Niño] is growing and the prediction models say it’s going to get stronger,” Barnston said. “And that’s our prediction, that it will become a strong event, most likely.”
A few models, notably the European model and the National Weather Service CFS model, point to the possibility of a near-record event in which a very strong or “super” El Niño develops.
The only two super (or very strong) El Ninos in the historic record occurred in 1982-83 and 1997-98.
Perhaps hinting at an El Niño rivaling history, models have been trending stronger with their forecast month after month after month — as they absorb more data reflecting the true state of the current event and how it’s evolving:
 While some models show El Niño possibly maxing out in record territory, NOAA climate analyst Michelle L’Heureux expressed some skepticism about such projections in an interview with Mashable’s Andrew Freedman.
“L’Heureux noted that none of the major forecasting centers responsible for monitoring El Nino are predicting a record event at this time,”Freedman reported.
NOAA says the “forecaster consensus” is for a strong event but doesn’t specify how strong.
Its forecast calls for El Niño to persist through the winter (90 percent chance) and early spring (80 percent chance)."