Abstract--Summary
"There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false.
The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field.
In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller...
Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true...
In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research..."
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