Trust the Experts? It’s a Bad Bet

“The internet will have no more economic impact than the fax machine,” said Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. - Mitzi Perdue

• U.S. intelligence insisted the Afghan government would hold for months after the American withdrawal. It fell in eleven days. 
• Military analysts around the world predicted Kyiv would fall within seventy-two hours in February 2022. It never did. 
• The media lined up to predict that “Harry Potter” would flop because kids no longer read. Harry Potter sold half a billion copies.

These were not fringe voices. 

These were the crowned heads of their domains, credentialed, lauded, confident experts. 

Their expertise was real, but their predictions were wrong.

• Why are experts so often and so publicly wrong?...