The case for Trump’s tariffs looks strong a year on from ‘liberation day’

Economists’ lurid forecasts of disaster have not been realised -  OREN CASS

The results have been remarkable. 

The past year has also proved as disruptive to the discipline of economics and the overconfidence of its most prominent practitioners as it has been to supply chains. 

The folly of tariffs was among their most deeply held beliefs, hard-coded into their models, proudly professed in every interview. 

• Tariffs, they insisted, would lead to sharply higher inflation and much slower growth, a likely recession and millions of jobs lost. 
• They would prompt retaliation and lead to appreciation of the dollar, crippling exporters and leading to further deindustrialisation. 

 But none of this happened.