"In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.
The recently published U.S. National Climate Assessment shows that we are currently on track for RCP8.5.
...Larry Kummer wrote a 2015 guest post at Climate Etc. entitled A closer look at scenario RCP8.5. LK describes RCP8.5 as a “useful worst case scenario.”
RCP8.5 figures prominently in the most alarming of future climate scenarios.
I am wondering if RCP8.5 is too extreme, in the sense that is may be impossible, given constraints on recoverable fossil fuel supply.
In particular, there is a fairly large number of papers arguing that assumptions about coal are incorrect: (list of papers courtesy of LK)...
RCP8.5 figures prominently in the most alarming of future climate scenarios.
I am wondering if RCP8.5 is too extreme, in the sense that is may be impossible, given constraints on recoverable fossil fuel supply.
In particular, there is a fairly large number of papers arguing that assumptions about coal are incorrect: (list of papers courtesy of LK)...
Climate projections are based on emission scenarios.
The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels.
The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels.
This paper, by contrast, takes a supply- side view of CO2 emission, and generates two supply-driven emission scenarios based on a comprehensive investigation of likely long-term pathways of fossil fuel production drawn from peer-reviewed literature published since 2000.
The potential rapid increases in the supply of the non-conventional fossil fuels are also investigated. Climate projections calculated in this paper indicate that the future atmospheric CO2 concentration will not exceed 610 ppm in this century; and that the increase in global surface temperature will be lower than 2.6 C compared to pre-industrial level even if there is a significant increase in the production of non-conventional fossil fuels..."
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