Thursday, August 18, 2016

Germany’s Threat to the Global Economy

Germany’s Threat to the Global Economy | Economics21:
"A striking feature of a US election campaign focused on the supposed ills of globalization is how little attention is being drawn to Germany’s extraordinarily large external current account surplus. This is all the more surprising considering how much larger are Germany’s external imbalances in relation to those of China.
While the IMF now estimates that China’s external current account surplus might be some 1 to 3 percent of GDP above an appropriate level, it estimates that Germany’s is some 3 to 6 percent of GDP too high. 
Similarly while the IMF considers that after years of appreciation China’s exchange rate is now approximately at an appropriate level, it considers that the exchange rate Germany faces is now between 10 and 20 percent too low for that country.
That Germany is running a disturbingly large external imbalance is hardly open to question. According to the most recent official balance of payments data, Germany’s external current account deficit rose to the highest level on record.
It is now on track to remain above 8.5 percent of gross domestic product for the year as a whole, which would be around three times the size of China’s current account surplus.
Making this surplus all the more troubling is the fact that it is occurring at a time when the German economy is cyclically in a very much stronger position than its European partners..."

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