Excellent read! How they distract us with words!!-----Weaponizing Uncertainty: Climate Scientists Admit They Don’t Know—Then Demand You Obey Anyway - Charles Rotter

It would be nearly impossible to fabricate a better fictional demonstration of motivated reasoning than the May 2025 Nature commentary titled “Hurricane risk in a changing climate — the role of uncertainty”...

In fact, if one needed a primary source to study how scientific ambiguity can be massaged into policy certainty, this article would serve beautifully.
The authors begin by acknowledging the obvious:

“there’s also a lot that we don’t know”...about how climate change affects hurricanes. 

This initial concession gives the impression of intellectual humility. 

Yet what follows is a masterclass in rhetorical misdirection—a piece that deserves to be taught in schools, not for its science, but for its persuasive structure.
Rather than treating uncertainty as a reason for caution, Sobel and Emanuel treat it as a trigger for urgency. 

• They write, “In general, uncertainty increases risk”.
• This sounds profound until you realize it’s a tautology masquerading as logic. 

More uncertainty does not inherently increase actual risk—it increases the range of possible outcomes. 

But in the world of policy-driven science, this range is always framed around the worst case...