𝐕𝐈𝐂𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐃𝐀𝐕𝐈𝐒 𝐇𝐀𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐍 𝐑𝐔𝐍𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐍𝐔𝐌𝐁𝐄𝐑𝐒 𝐎𝐍 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 — 𝟏,𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐄𝐃 𝐖𝐀𝐑𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐍𝐄𝐒 𝐀𝐆𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐒𝐓 𝐙𝐄𝐑𝐎

Everyone keeps asking whether America is about to bomb Iran or keep haggling with it.  - M.A. Rothman

...He warns Iran thinks it can 𝘳𝘶𝘯 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘪𝘥𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴, but 𝘪𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.
Then there is the airpower math, and it is not close.

• Hanson counts 𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐲 𝟏,𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞-𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐟𝐭 across the region...before a single carrier air wing is added. 
• Iran, by his account, has 𝐧𝐨 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐟𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐧𝐨 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐢𝐫 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐥𝐞𝐟𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐨𝐟.
• It gets worse for the regime. Hanson notes Iran's threats against the Strait of Hormuz have only 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘦𝘹𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘪𝘱𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘺𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘵 — meaning Tehran is engineering itself right out of its one piece of leverage.

As Hanson puts it, 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘪𝘯𝘨 

• 𝘣𝘰𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘥, 
• 𝘴𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘥, 𝘰𝘳 
• 𝘦𝘮𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘰𝘦𝘥 — 
• 𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘦...