Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Science Under Attack--Why Both Coronavirus and Climate Models Get It Wrong
Science Under Attack
Most coronavirus epidemiological models have been an utter failure in providing advance information on the spread and containment of the insidious virus.
Computer climate models are no better, with a dismal track record in predicting the future.
This post compares the similarities and differences of the two types of model.
But similarities and differences aside, the models are still just that – models.
Although I remarked in an earlier post that epidemiological models are much simpler than climate models, this doesn’t mean they’re any more accurate.
...But the major weakness of both types of model is that numerous assumptions must be made to incorporate the many variables that are not known.
...Approximations in the models take the form of adjustable numerical parameters, often derisively termed “fudge factors” by scientists and engineers.
The famous mathematician John von Neumann once said, “With four [adjustable] parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.”...
Read all.
"If it [a scientific hypothesis] disagrees with experiment, it’s WRONG." – Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman
"Why Both Coronavirus and Climate Models Get It WrongComputer climate models are no better, with a dismal track record in predicting the future.
This post compares the similarities and differences of the two types of model.
But similarities and differences aside, the models are still just that – models.
Although I remarked in an earlier post that epidemiological models are much simpler than climate models, this doesn’t mean they’re any more accurate.
...But the major weakness of both types of model is that numerous assumptions must be made to incorporate the many variables that are not known.
...Approximations in the models take the form of adjustable numerical parameters, often derisively termed “fudge factors” by scientists and engineers.
The famous mathematician John von Neumann once said, “With four [adjustable] parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.”...
Read all.
Think it can't happen in your town? Think again!-----Layoffs Due to Virus Lead to Dissension at Duluth City Hall - American Experiment
"Duluth faces a potential $38 million budget shortfall Mayor Emily Larson calls “absolutely catastrophic” in the wake of declining tax revenue projections due to the economic impact of the coronavirus.
The dire predicament forced the city to lay off some 100 employees, implement a hiring freeze, as well as shutter a golf course and other city facilities.
City officials laid it on the line at a recent virtual city council meeting covered by the Duluth News Tribune.
Read all.Noah Schuchman, Duluth’s chief administrative officer, explained that in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, the city had asked staff to work from home to the best of their abilities. But some jobs simply were impossible to perform in that setting. He said that initially the city continued to pay idled staff nevertheless....
Trump has a higher approval rating that Obama and Bush - TheBlaze
President Donald Trump enjoyed his highest Gallup approval rating on May 13. Trump's 49% approval rating is better than four of the last six presidents at the same time during their presidencies.
Stealing The 2020 Election Through The U.S. Mail – Issues & Insights
Stealing The 2020 Election Through The U.S. Mail – Issues & Insights"Democrats and their media scribes have spent more than three years glued to the narrative that President Donald Trump stole the 2016 election from Hillary Clinton by colluding with Russia to rig the outcome.
But they don’t care about the legitimacy of elections.
If they did, they wouldn’t be agitating for voting by mail this fall.
...Few elections, even in the U.S., are ever perfectly clean.
But the potential for a dirty election sharply increases when ballots are scattered in the wind.
“Absentee ballots are the tools of choice of election fraudsters because they are voted outside the supervision of election officials, making it easier to steal, forge, or alter them, as well as to intimidate voters,” says Hans A. von Spakovsky of the Heritage Foundation....
Read all.
Hypocrite!---‘CNN Faker’ Kaitlan Collins Responds After Trump Called Her Out In Tweet - Analyzing America
‘CNN Faker’ Kaitlan Collins Responds After Trump Called Her Out In Tweet - Analyzing America
"CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins has responded after she was caught on camera removing her mask immediately following a press conference at the White House.
As soon as the presser was over and the live feeds were cut, she removed her mask — but at least one camera was still on and recorded the whole thing.
Collins has a history of calling out Trump administration officials for not wearing a face mask at events so the incident immediately sparked a backlash.
Eric Trump shared a video of Collins removing her mask and said it served as a “reminder that CNN is a total joke.”...
Read all.
"CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins has responded after she was caught on camera removing her mask immediately following a press conference at the White House.
As soon as the presser was over and the live feeds were cut, she removed her mask — but at least one camera was still on and recorded the whole thing.
Collins has a history of calling out Trump administration officials for not wearing a face mask at events so the incident immediately sparked a backlash.
Eric Trump shared a video of Collins removing her mask and said it served as a “reminder that CNN is a total joke.”...
Read all.
‘We Can’t Fight A Flood And Pritzker Back To Back’: Mayor Of Grafton, IL, Says His City Could Cease To Exist | The Daily Caller
Mayor Rick Eberlin says that his small town of Grafton, Illinois, could cease to exist if Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker doesn’t allow businesses to reopen soon.
Eberlin told the Daily Caller that record flooding in recent years had forced a number of businesses back on their heels, leaving them in an already precarious position when Pritzker’s orders had closed them down.
What Will It Take To Reopen U.S.? CDC Says 'Aggressive' Contact Tracing : Shots - Health News : NPR
"It's the question on everyone's minds: What will it take for us to come out of this period of extreme social distancing and return to some semblance of normal life?
...CDC Director Robert Redfield spoke with NPR on Thursday, saying that the plan relies on not only ramped-up testing but "very aggressive" contact tracing of those who do test positive for the coronavirus, and a major scale-up of personnel to do the necessary work..."
Read all.
Non-eviction order leads to squatting in style in the Hamptons
"Some unscrupulous tenants in the tony Hamptons are using the state’s non-eviction order to squat in style, local landlords and real-estate brokers claim.
The short-term renters moved into their beach-town pads on Long Island before the coronavirus struck and Gov. Andrew Cuomo enacted a moratorium on evictions till at least Aug. 20 to protect those financially struggling amid the pandemic.
The tenants are now allegedly twisting the non-eviction order to their benefit, refusing to vacate their prime summer pads even though their leases are up — and exasperated local landlords say there is nothing they can do about it..."
Read all.
C-19? Gimme break, she's 100!-----Annie Glenn, widow of former senator and astronaut John Glenn, dies from COVID-19
Annie Glenn dies - BingAnnie Glenn, widow of the late Ohio senator and astronaut John Glenn, has died at age 100 after contracting COVID-19.
...A spokesperson for the John Glenn College of Public Affairs at the Ohio State University confirmed to the Associated Press that Glenn died at nursing home in Minnesota on Tuesday morning from complications related to the coronavirus...
Read all.
Obama Officials Said On TV That Trump Colluded With Russia — They Said Otherwise Under Oath | The Daily Caller
Newly declassified documents have shown that several Obama administration officials now say they saw no empirical evidence of Trump-Russia collusion, contradicting earlier statements they made on television.
Chief among these Obama officials is former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.
Politics disguised as science-----FaceBook Censors Polar Bear Video For Including Factual Info | Climate Dispatch
FaceBook Censors Polar Bear Video For Including Factual Info | Climate Dispatch
"Facebook has labeled a recent short PragerU polar bear video as “false information” based on a ClimateFeedback review featuring statements by Andrew Derocher and Ian Stirling published 18 May 2020.
The video, posted on Facebook 5 May 2020, is also available here and here.
I was approached yesterday by Nick Coltrain, a reporter for the Des Moines Register and USA Today, asking for a statement about the accuracy of the PragerU video, which cites me as a source for two of their three ‘inconvenient facts.’
"Facebook has labeled a recent short PragerU polar bear video as “false information” based on a ClimateFeedback review featuring statements by Andrew Derocher and Ian Stirling published 18 May 2020.
The video, posted on Facebook 5 May 2020, is also available here and here.
I was approached yesterday by Nick Coltrain, a reporter for the Des Moines Register and USA Today, asking for a statement about the accuracy of the PragerU video, which cites me as a source for two of their three ‘inconvenient facts.’
My comments are below but I reminded Nick that what is going on is a classic conflict that happens all the time in science: it presents no proof that I’m wrong or that the PragerU video is ‘false information’.
Climate Feedback is not ‘fact-checking’: it is presenting its preferred side of a disputed science issue.
Climate Feedback is not ‘fact-checking’: it is presenting its preferred side of a disputed science issue.
STATEMENT SENT TO NICK COLTRAIN:
Read all.Thanks for the opportunity to respond. I stand behind the accuracy of the video but wish they had cited my scientific paper, my fully referenced new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, and/or The State of the Polar Bear Report 2019, also fully referenced. [links provided to Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020]I will post a full response on my blog but would like to point out the following...
History for May 20
History for May 20 - On-This-Day.com
Dolley Payne Madison 1768 - U.S. First Lady, wife of 4th President James Madison, Honore de Balzac 1799 - Novelist, John Stuart Mill 1806 - Editor, philosopher
Jimmy Stewart 1908 - Actor (Philadelphia Story [1940]; The Glenn Miller Story, It’s a Wonderful Life, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington), William R. Hewlett 1913 - Co-founder of Hewlett-Packard Company (HP), Cher (Cherilyn Sarkisian LaPierre) 1946 - Singer (Sonny & Cher), actress (Moonstruck [1987]; The Witches of Eastwick, Silkwood, Mask)
1774 - Britain's Parliament passed the Coercive Acts to punish the American colonists for their increasingly anti-British behavior
1873 - Levi Strauss began marketing blue jeans with copper rivets.
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
LORD: The Washington Post Covers Up Obamagate | The Daily Caller
LORD: The Washington Post Covers Up Obamagate | The Daily Caller:
As recent days have unearthed now-declassified documents that plainly show multiples of Obama officials “unmasked” incoming Trump National Security adviser Michael Flynn, more detail is added to what was already a scandal involving the Obama administration’s abuse of the FBI and CIA. In the words of The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board:
“The 2016 and 2017 spying on Trump officials and then leaking to promote a false narrative of collusion is one of the dirtiest tricks in the history of American politics. It is not ‘perfectly legitimate,’ and the public needs to know the full story behind it.”
And the response of The Post to what critics have quickly dubbed “Obamagate?” Out comes an editorial titled:
“The 2016 and 2017 spying on Trump officials and then leaking to promote a false narrative of collusion is one of the dirtiest tricks in the history of American politics. It is not ‘perfectly legitimate,’ and the public needs to know the full story behind it.”
And the response of The Post to what critics have quickly dubbed “Obamagate?” Out comes an editorial titled:
San Diego official reveals only six of county's nearly 200 COVID-deaths are 'pure, solely coronavirus' deaths - TheBlaze
San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond is pushing back against California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom's stay-at-home order, revealing that most of his county's coronavirus-deaths were not directly caused by the virus.
In a radio interview last week, Desmond said only six of the COVID-19 deaths in his county were "purely, solely" from coronavirus, the San Diego Tribune reported.
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