Saturday, January 05, 2013
Cooling Down the Fears of Climate Change
Matt Ridley: Cooling Down the Fears of Climate Change - WSJ.com
Mr. Lewis tells me that the latest observational estimates of the effect of aerosols (such as sulfurous particles from coal smoke) find that they have much less cooling effect than thought when the last IPCC report was written.
The rate at which the ocean is absorbing greenhouse-gas-induced warming is also now known to be fairly modest.
In other words, the two excuses used to explain away the slow, mild warming we have actually experienced—culminating in a standstill in which global temperatures are no higher than they were 16 years ago—no longer work.
In short: We can now estimate, based on observations, how sensitive the temperature is to carbon dioxide.
We do not need to rely heavily on unproven models.
Comparing the trend in global temperature over the past 100-150 years with the change in "radiative forcing" (heating or cooling power) from carbon dioxide, aerosols and other sources, minus ocean heat uptake, can now give a good estimate of climate sensitivity.
The conclusion—taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal-average global temperature between 1871-80 and 2002-11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake—is this: A doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6°-1.7°C (2.9°-3.1°F).
This is much lower than the IPCC's current best estimate, 3°C (5.4°F).
Mr. Lewis is an expert reviewer of the recently leaked draft of the IPCC's WG1 Scientific Report. The IPCC forbids him to quote from it, but he is privy to all the observational best estimates and uncertainty ranges the draft report gives.
What he has told me is dynamite.
Given what we know now, there is almost no way that the feared large temperature rise is going to happen.
Mr. Lewis tells me that the latest observational estimates of the effect of aerosols (such as sulfurous particles from coal smoke) find that they have much less cooling effect than thought when the last IPCC report was written.
The rate at which the ocean is absorbing greenhouse-gas-induced warming is also now known to be fairly modest.
In other words, the two excuses used to explain away the slow, mild warming we have actually experienced—culminating in a standstill in which global temperatures are no higher than they were 16 years ago—no longer work.
In short: We can now estimate, based on observations, how sensitive the temperature is to carbon dioxide.
We do not need to rely heavily on unproven models.
Comparing the trend in global temperature over the past 100-150 years with the change in "radiative forcing" (heating or cooling power) from carbon dioxide, aerosols and other sources, minus ocean heat uptake, can now give a good estimate of climate sensitivity.
The conclusion—taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal-average global temperature between 1871-80 and 2002-11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake—is this: A doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6°-1.7°C (2.9°-3.1°F).
This is much lower than the IPCC's current best estimate, 3°C (5.4°F).
Mr. Lewis is an expert reviewer of the recently leaked draft of the IPCC's WG1 Scientific Report. The IPCC forbids him to quote from it, but he is privy to all the observational best estimates and uncertainty ranges the draft report gives.
What he has told me is dynamite.
Given what we know now, there is almost no way that the feared large temperature rise is going to happen.
The EPA's Tainted Fracking Tests
Keith Mauck: The EPA's Tainted Fracking Tests - WSJ.com
Hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," uses water and trace amounts of chemicals to create tiny fissures in deep-rock formations and coax energy-laden molecules to flow toward the surface. Fracking technology is driving America's oil and shale-gas boom, yet a White House executive order from April directs no fewer than 13 federal agencies to consider new regulations on fracking—even as it is already regulated by the states.
In recent years the federal Environmental Protection Agency has investigated fracking in three locations. In Texas and Pennsylvania, the EPA was unable to establish a link between fracking and groundwater contamination, the main ill effect that critics warn against. (Fracking contamination is the theme of "Promised Land," a movie starring Matt Damon that opened last week.)
But the agency claims to have found a smoking gun at its third test site, in Pavillion, Wyo. There, according to draft findings, EPA investigators found "compounds likely associated with gas production practices, including hydraulic fracturing" appearing at levels "below established health and safety standards."
The Pavillion study involves two water wells drilled by the agency in 2010 to test groundwater quality. Experts from the Wyoming Water Development Commission and elsewhere sharply criticized the EPA's results on several grounds, including that EPA investigators didn't follow their own guidelines on the timeliness of the testing and the purity of the water samples. The federal Bureau of Land Management said that "much more robust" testing would be needed to properly draw conclusions.
So the EPA agreed to test the wells again, in April and May of last year 2012. In October, it claimed again to have found contaminated water. But this time there was a new wrinkle: The U.S. Geological Survey had conducted tests alongside the EPA, and its investigators reported different results. Unlike the EPA, the USGS failed to find any traces of glycols or 2-butoxyethanol, fracking-related chemicals that could cause serious health issues if they entered the water supply at levels the EPA considers contamination.
Meanwhile, the USGS found significantly lower concentrations of other materials identified by the EPA—including phenol, potassium and diesel-range organics—which might not have resulted from the fracking at all. The phenols were likely introduced accidentally in the laboratory, for example, and potassium might be naturally occurring or the result of potash contained in the cement used to build the EPA wells.
The USGS also noted that in constructing the monitoring wells, the EPA used a "black painted/coated carbon steel casing," and EPA photographs show that investigators used a painted device to catch sand from the wells. The problem is that paint can contain a variety of compounds that distort test results—so it is poor scientific practice to use painted or coated materials in well-monitoring tests.
After initially neglecting to disclose this information, the EPA eventually acknowledged it, but only while attempting to deflect criticism by releasing more test results and claiming that its data are "generally consistent" with the USGS findings. These actions only muddied the matter and postponed the peer-review process until after Jan. 15.
As the Tulsa-based energy and water-management firm ALL Consulting concluded: "Close review of the EPA draft report and associated documents reveals a number of concerns about the methodology, sampling results, and study findings and conclusions. These concerns stem from apparent errors in sampling and laboratory analysis, incomplete information that makes it difficult to assess the validity of the results, and EPA's failure to seriously consider alternative explanations for the results of its investigation. . . . Taken together, these concerns call into question the validity of EPA's analytical results and their conclusions regarding the sources of the reported contamination."
With no clear connection between fracking and groundwater contamination, it is premature and counterproductive to propose new federal regulations on the practice. Shoddy science should not form the basis of federal policy.
The fracking-facilitated development of shale gas and oil could create two million new jobs and billions in tax revenue over the next two decades, according to the research firm IHS Global Insight. Rather than look for reasons to stand in its way, the federal government should embrace hydraulic fracturing and take full advantage of its economic and security benefits.
Mr. Mauck is publisher of GoMarcellusShale.com.
By KEITH MAUCK
It has been four decades since Richard Nixon launched "Project Independence" with the goal of making the United States energy independent. All presidents since then have said they shared that goal, yet never has it been within reach as it is today—thanks to domestic natural gas and especially to the extraction method known as hydraulic fracturing. The International Energy Agency estimates that such technologies could allow the U.S. to supplant Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2020. But, as ever, government regulation may stand in the way.Hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," uses water and trace amounts of chemicals to create tiny fissures in deep-rock formations and coax energy-laden molecules to flow toward the surface. Fracking technology is driving America's oil and shale-gas boom, yet a White House executive order from April directs no fewer than 13 federal agencies to consider new regulations on fracking—even as it is already regulated by the states.
In recent years the federal Environmental Protection Agency has investigated fracking in three locations. In Texas and Pennsylvania, the EPA was unable to establish a link between fracking and groundwater contamination, the main ill effect that critics warn against. (Fracking contamination is the theme of "Promised Land," a movie starring Matt Damon that opened last week.)
But the agency claims to have found a smoking gun at its third test site, in Pavillion, Wyo. There, according to draft findings, EPA investigators found "compounds likely associated with gas production practices, including hydraulic fracturing" appearing at levels "below established health and safety standards."
The Pavillion study involves two water wells drilled by the agency in 2010 to test groundwater quality. Experts from the Wyoming Water Development Commission and elsewhere sharply criticized the EPA's results on several grounds, including that EPA investigators didn't follow their own guidelines on the timeliness of the testing and the purity of the water samples. The federal Bureau of Land Management said that "much more robust" testing would be needed to properly draw conclusions.
So the EPA agreed to test the wells again, in April and May of last year 2012. In October, it claimed again to have found contaminated water. But this time there was a new wrinkle: The U.S. Geological Survey had conducted tests alongside the EPA, and its investigators reported different results. Unlike the EPA, the USGS failed to find any traces of glycols or 2-butoxyethanol, fracking-related chemicals that could cause serious health issues if they entered the water supply at levels the EPA considers contamination.
Meanwhile, the USGS found significantly lower concentrations of other materials identified by the EPA—including phenol, potassium and diesel-range organics—which might not have resulted from the fracking at all. The phenols were likely introduced accidentally in the laboratory, for example, and potassium might be naturally occurring or the result of potash contained in the cement used to build the EPA wells.
The USGS also noted that in constructing the monitoring wells, the EPA used a "black painted/coated carbon steel casing," and EPA photographs show that investigators used a painted device to catch sand from the wells. The problem is that paint can contain a variety of compounds that distort test results—so it is poor scientific practice to use painted or coated materials in well-monitoring tests.
After initially neglecting to disclose this information, the EPA eventually acknowledged it, but only while attempting to deflect criticism by releasing more test results and claiming that its data are "generally consistent" with the USGS findings. These actions only muddied the matter and postponed the peer-review process until after Jan. 15.
As the Tulsa-based energy and water-management firm ALL Consulting concluded: "Close review of the EPA draft report and associated documents reveals a number of concerns about the methodology, sampling results, and study findings and conclusions. These concerns stem from apparent errors in sampling and laboratory analysis, incomplete information that makes it difficult to assess the validity of the results, and EPA's failure to seriously consider alternative explanations for the results of its investigation. . . . Taken together, these concerns call into question the validity of EPA's analytical results and their conclusions regarding the sources of the reported contamination."
With no clear connection between fracking and groundwater contamination, it is premature and counterproductive to propose new federal regulations on the practice. Shoddy science should not form the basis of federal policy.
The fracking-facilitated development of shale gas and oil could create two million new jobs and billions in tax revenue over the next two decades, according to the research firm IHS Global Insight. Rather than look for reasons to stand in its way, the federal government should embrace hydraulic fracturing and take full advantage of its economic and security benefits.
Mr. Mauck is publisher of GoMarcellusShale.com.
Study: Eco-Friendly Light Bulbs May Put Health At Risk
Study: Eco-Friendly Light Bulbs May Put Health At Risk « CBS Miami
"Money saving, compact fluorescent light bulbs emit high levels of ultra violet radiation, according to a new study. Research at Long Island’s Stony Brook found that the bulbs emit rays so strong that they can actually burn skin and skin cells.
“The results were that you could actually initiate cell death,” said Marcia Simon, a Professor of Dermatology."
"Money saving, compact fluorescent light bulbs emit high levels of ultra violet radiation, according to a new study. Research at Long Island’s Stony Brook found that the bulbs emit rays so strong that they can actually burn skin and skin cells.
“The results were that you could actually initiate cell death,” said Marcia Simon, a Professor of Dermatology."
Crony Capitalist Blowout
Review & Outlook: Crony Capitalist Blowout - WSJ.com
"In praising Congress's huge new tax increase, President Obama said Tuesday that "millionaires and billionaires" will finally "pay their fair share."
That is, unless you are a Nascar track owner, a wind-energy company or the owners of StarKist Tuna, among many others who managed to get their taxes reduced in Congress's New Year celebration."
"In praising Congress's huge new tax increase, President Obama said Tuesday that "millionaires and billionaires" will finally "pay their fair share."
That is, unless you are a Nascar track owner, a wind-energy company or the owners of StarKist Tuna, among many others who managed to get their taxes reduced in Congress's New Year celebration."
The astonishing Aeroscraft - a new type of rigid airship that's set to revolutionise haulage, tourism... and warfare
The astonishing Aeroscraft - a new type of rigid airship that's set to revolutionise haulage, tourism... and warfare | Mail Online
The Aeroscraft can carry three times more than the biggest military cargo planes over thousands of miles
Heavily backed by the U.S. military, it is now at the prototype stage and is set for its first test flight
It is capable of vertical take off and landing and doesn't even need a landing strip
The Aeroscraft can carry three times more than the biggest military cargo planes over thousands of miles
Heavily backed by the U.S. military, it is now at the prototype stage and is set for its first test flight
It is capable of vertical take off and landing and doesn't even need a landing strip
City of Muskegon raises several fees for municipal services in 2013 to reflect rising costs
City of Muskegon raises several fees for municipal services in 2013 to reflect rising costs | MLive.com
• A reduction in slip rentals at Hartshorn Marina of 13 percent for 30-foot slips to $1,740 a season, 21 percent for 40-foot slips to $2,400 a season and 27 percent for 60-foot slips to $3,900 a season. The reductions are in hopes of increasing the number of marina rentals, city officials said.
• Seasonal beach catamaran dry storage rentals will go up 20 percent a season to $161 for residents and $239 for nonresidents.
• The stormwater “cross connection” with sewer lines violation fee has gone from $6.05 a day to $7.69 a day with no charges if the correction is made within 90 days of discovery.
• A new fee has been imposed on large water main taps of $200 each, plus the cost of the city’s time and materials.
• Planned Unit Development requests for the special zoning designation have gone from $500 to $600. The charges now will be $300 for preliminary approvals and $300 for final approvals.
• Requests to vacate a city street have gone from $300 to $400.
• Flat sewer rate fees (for those without water meters) are now $29.70 a month for residential customers and $36.15 a month for commercial customers.
• Requests for a zoning change have gone from $300 to $400.
• A reduction in slip rentals at Hartshorn Marina of 13 percent for 30-foot slips to $1,740 a season, 21 percent for 40-foot slips to $2,400 a season and 27 percent for 60-foot slips to $3,900 a season. The reductions are in hopes of increasing the number of marina rentals, city officials said.
• Seasonal beach catamaran dry storage rentals will go up 20 percent a season to $161 for residents and $239 for nonresidents.
• The stormwater “cross connection” with sewer lines violation fee has gone from $6.05 a day to $7.69 a day with no charges if the correction is made within 90 days of discovery.
• A new fee has been imposed on large water main taps of $200 each, plus the cost of the city’s time and materials.
• Planned Unit Development requests for the special zoning designation have gone from $500 to $600. The charges now will be $300 for preliminary approvals and $300 for final approvals.
• Requests to vacate a city street have gone from $300 to $400.
• Flat sewer rate fees (for those without water meters) are now $29.70 a month for residential customers and $36.15 a month for commercial customers.
• Requests for a zoning change have gone from $300 to $400.
Obama's High Taxes And The Myths Of The 1950s Tax Rates
Obama's High Taxes And The Myths Of The 1950s Tax Rates - Investors.com
A final reason that the 1950s were different from today was American primacy.
In those years the U.S. might set its taxes, nominal or real, at whatever level it liked.
The only competition it confronted, after all, was from Europe, still recovering from World War II, or Britain, whose tax regime was even more confiscatory than our own.
Now, however, the U.S. must compete.
And this is where the U.S., with some of the world's highest corporate taxes, flunks.
A final reason that the 1950s were different from today was American primacy.
In those years the U.S. might set its taxes, nominal or real, at whatever level it liked.
The only competition it confronted, after all, was from Europe, still recovering from World War II, or Britain, whose tax regime was even more confiscatory than our own.
Now, however, the U.S. must compete.
And this is where the U.S., with some of the world's highest corporate taxes, flunks.
Chevy Volt sales triple
Chevy Volt sales triple - Jan. 3, 2013
Sales there jumped thanks to a few engineering tweaks that made the Volt eligible for California's highly desirable carpool lane stickers for the first time.
"More than half of all Volt sales are in California," said Alec Guitierrez, an analyst with Kelley Blue Book.
The car has also been catching on in other markets, however, including Michigan and in the Chicago area, according to GM.
Besides the carpool lane stickers, the Volt has also been helped by aggressive leasing incentives offered in 2012.
Last year, GM was offering the car for $289 a month with a $2,800 down payment.
That was far less than a car with the Volt's nearly $40,000 purchase price would ordinarily lease for, even factoring in a $7,500 plug-in car tax credit
Sales there jumped thanks to a few engineering tweaks that made the Volt eligible for California's highly desirable carpool lane stickers for the first time.
"More than half of all Volt sales are in California," said Alec Guitierrez, an analyst with Kelley Blue Book.
The car has also been catching on in other markets, however, including Michigan and in the Chicago area, according to GM.
Besides the carpool lane stickers, the Volt has also been helped by aggressive leasing incentives offered in 2012.
Last year, GM was offering the car for $289 a month with a $2,800 down payment.
That was far less than a car with the Volt's nearly $40,000 purchase price would ordinarily lease for, even factoring in a $7,500 plug-in car tax credit
Woman hiding with kids shoots intruder
Woman hiding with kids shoots intruder | www.wsbtv.com
"The perpetrator opens that door.
Of course, at that time he's staring at her, her two children and a .38 revolver,"
"The perpetrator opens that door.
Of course, at that time he's staring at her, her two children and a .38 revolver,"
Barack Obama’s $7 million Hawaii vacation is an insult to America’s struggling middle class
Barack Obama’s $7 million Hawaii vacation is an insult to America’s struggling middle class – Telegraph Blogs
In a move that is rich in irony, President Obama agreed Tuesday night to sign an emergency deficit reduction bill that does almost nothing to rein in spending and then jetted out to Hawaii to resume his vacation at an extra cost of more than $3 million to taxpayers.
The price tag is in addition to more than $4 million that is already being spent on the Obamas’ Hawaii idyll, bringing the total cost of the excursion to well over $7 million.
In a move that is rich in irony, President Obama agreed Tuesday night to sign an emergency deficit reduction bill that does almost nothing to rein in spending and then jetted out to Hawaii to resume his vacation at an extra cost of more than $3 million to taxpayers.
The price tag is in addition to more than $4 million that is already being spent on the Obamas’ Hawaii idyll, bringing the total cost of the excursion to well over $7 million.
Friday, January 04, 2013
New Civil Rights Group Joins Affirmative Action Case
New Civil Rights Group Joins Affirmative Action Case [Michigan Capitol Confidential]
The XIV Foundation was founded shortly after the 6th Circuit Court decision.
It took the name XIV, in reference to the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
The organization's motto is: "Equal Treatment is the Essence of Equal Rights."
The XIV Foundation was founded shortly after the 6th Circuit Court decision.
It took the name XIV, in reference to the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
The organization's motto is: "Equal Treatment is the Essence of Equal Rights."
2012 was Detroit's most violent in 20 years; shootings, bloodshed have 'become the norm'
http://tinyurl.com/aytkgkj
Already this week, a mother has been charged with fatally stabbing her 8-year-old daughter, and a cab driver was shot to death.
Already this week, a mother has been charged with fatally stabbing her 8-year-old daughter, and a cab driver was shot to death.
New Civil Rights Group Joins Affirmative Action Case
New Civil Rights Group Joins Affirmative Action Case [Michigan Capitol Confidential]
Voters in 2006 passed the constitutional amendment that prohibited the state from discriminating against, or granting preferential treatment to, any group or individual on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin by a 58 percent to 42 percent margin.
However, on Nov. 15, eight federal judges on the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals struck the initiative down.
Voters in 2006 passed the constitutional amendment that prohibited the state from discriminating against, or granting preferential treatment to, any group or individual on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin by a 58 percent to 42 percent margin.
However, on Nov. 15, eight federal judges on the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals struck the initiative down.
Bridge Card error affects 85,000 Michigan families receiving food assistance; state working to fix problem
Bridge Card error affects 85,000 Michigan families receiving food assistance; state working to fix problem | MLive.com
Thousands of Michigan families are temporarily unable to get their food assistance benefits because of a Bridge Card error that state officials are working to fix.
Thousands of Michigan families are temporarily unable to get their food assistance benefits because of a Bridge Card error that state officials are working to fix.
What was cost to protect right-to-work demonstrators, Capitol building last month?
Tim Skubick: What was cost to protect right-to-work demonstrators, Capitol building last month?
MLive.com
......so far nobody knows how many were spent to deploy 500 Michigan State Police officers to guard the state capitol and Right to Work demonstrators last month.
Five hundred is darn close close to half the entire force.
MLive.com
......so far nobody knows how many were spent to deploy 500 Michigan State Police officers to guard the state capitol and Right to Work demonstrators last month.
Five hundred is darn close close to half the entire force.
Armed guards at NY paper that reported gun info
Armed guards at NY paper that reported gun info
...publisher Janet Hasson said. “The safety of my staff is my top priority,” she told The New York Times
...publisher Janet Hasson said. “The safety of my staff is my top priority,” she told The New York Times
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