With Trump all but clinching the GOP nomination, we look back at the greatly exaggerated reports of his political demise.
...Here are a few predictions that, in hindsight, do not look as great as they once seemed:
- Because he’s not a ‘real candidate’
“...Harry Enten wrote for FiveThirtyEight on June 16, 2015, the day Trump declared himself a candidate....“For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another ‘Home Alone’ movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination,” Enten wrote.
- Because he’s ‘not really a Republican’
Prognosticator Nate Silver remarked in mid-September that Trump would not be the nominee because he is “not really a Republican.”
“...There’s an alternate reality in which he decided to run as a Democrat instead — he wouldn’t have to change his policy positions all that much."
- Because he’ll be out by Iowa
Former Mitt Romney adviser and noted Trump critic Stuart Stevens took to CNN on Oct. 5 to boldly predict...“I don’t think he’s going to be on the ballot by Feb. 1,” Stevens declared.
- Because he ‘seriously’ won’t win
As Trump cemented his place as the party’s front-runner in mid-October, Bloomberg View columnist Jonathan Bernstein dismissed pundits who said that the insurgent candidate’s stock was rising. "
..and he will lose once the further winnowing of the candidates produces one or two strong opponents,” he concluded. “In short, everything we know about how presidential nominations work says Trump isn’t going to be the nominee, or even come close.”
- Because everyone will laugh at you for thinking that Trump will win
“The entire commentariat is going to feel a little silly when Marco Rubio wins every Republican primary,” New York Times columnist Ross Douthat tweeted Sept. 25.
- Because it’s going to be Marco Rubio
...“No major party has ever nominated a figure like Trump or Carson, and I don’t believe that the 2016 GOP. will be the first,”..
Writing for The New York Times’ The Upshot blog on Dec. 15, Nate Cohn wrote of Trump’s appeal as a factional candidate, suggesting parallels to Howard Dean, Pat Buchanan and Herman Cain.
...“He does not have broad appeal throughout the party; he is unacceptable to the party’s establishment; and there are reasons to believe that his high numbers may be driven by unsustainable factors...”
- Because I’ll leave the party
Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol...“I don’t think Trump will be the nominee, so I don’t expect it to be an issue,” Kristol said. “But since I don’t think I could support Trump, and I’d like to have someone to vote for, if Trump were to be the nominee, I’d be open to a new party, probably for 2016 only — but you never know.”
- Because he’s finally collapsing
“Pundits who underestimated Trump’s potential last autumn have been hesitant to come out and state what has now become apparent:
He is probably not going to be the Republican nominee after all,” Jacob Weisberg wrote for Slate on April 8, three days after Cruz earned a temporary reprieve by trouncing Trump in Wisconsin.
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