HEADLINE: “The IPCC’s models of anthropogenic climate change lack predictive validity.”

“Who would have thunk it? - Stephen Heins

The IPCC models’ forecast errors were greater for most estimation samples —often many times greater—than those from a benchmark model that simply predicts that future years’ temperatures will be the same as the historical median.

The size of the forecast errors and unreliability of the models’ forecasts in response to additional observations in the estimation sample implies that the anthropogenic models fail to realistically capture and represent the causes of Earth’s surface temperature changes...

Finally, this study provides further evidence that measures of statistical fit provide misinformation about predictive validity...