Covid, Climate and the ‘Consensus Trap’

Scientists are as prone as anyone else to groupthink, and stifling dissent often produces disaster. -Steven E. Koonin and Scott W. Atlas

Three of the costliest policy failures in recent decades—

• the 2008 financial crisis, 
• the Covid lockdowns and 
• the campaign for rapid decarbonization

—share a pathology we call the Consensus Trap. 

• Problems began with the output of complex, unvalidated models presented as facts. 
• Institutions and public figures under pressure to appear authoritative ignored uncertainties. 
• Along with the press, these institutions and people became arbiters of truth, amplifying the declared consensus rather than critically assessing the evidence...